Impact of Global Conflicts & Manufacturing Strain

In the wake of mounting global tensions and disruptions to key supply chains, the U.S. ammunition industry is facing significant challenges. Several recent developments are converging to create a perfect storm that could lead to a gunpowder shortage, threatening both military and civilian ammunition supplies.

Alliant Powders Suspends Reloading Shipments

Back in May 2024, Alliant Powders, a well-known producer of reloading powders like Bullseye and Unique, surprised everyone by suspending shipments of its smokeless powders. This decision, driven by global conflicts—most notably the war in Ukraine—was fueled by a bottleneck in the production of nitrocellulose, the key ingredient in gunpowder. Alliant, owned by Vista Outdoor, prioritized its military contracts, diverting all nitrocellulose to ammunition production for defense purposes. This has left civilian reloaders scrambling for alternatives.

Alliant’s absence from the market is expected to continue until either military demand decreases or the production of defense-grade nitrocellulose expands—neither of which is likely to happen soon. Reloaders who have relied on Alliant’s gunpowder products are now being forced to switch to other brands, which may not have the same performance characteristics as their preferred powders.

China’s Chokehold on Ammunition Components

Further exacerbating the supply problem, in August 2024, China imposed a new restriction on the export of nitrocellulose and antimony, two critical components in ammunition production. Antimony, essential for hardening lead bullets, and nitrocellulose, used in propellants, are both vital to keeping the U.S. ammunition industry running. China’s decision has created widespread concern in the defense sector as the U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports of these materials.

Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have led to a significant diversion of ammunition components to military stockpiles. The U.S., along with European nations, is now racing to find alternative sources of nitrocellulose, but these efforts could take years to develop.

Industry insiders, like veteran ammunition expert John Farnam, have warned that ammunition shortages are imminent. While components are still available in small quantities, the shortage is expected to worsen, affecting both military and civilian markets.

Farnam advises consumers to stock up on ammunition and ammo reloading components now before the supply dries up completely.

New Updates: Gunpowder Shortage Looms Large

According to the latest report from The Truth About Guns (October 2024), the gunpowder shortage is now looming like a slow-moving hurricane. While popular calibers like 9mm and 5.56 NATO remain in stock, the availability of gunpowder is dwindling due to increasing military demands.

The conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East have drained the global supply of nitrocellulose, with artillery shells consuming large amounts of this critical material. Although the shortage has not fully impacted civilian ammunition supplies, it’s only a matter of time before less popular calibers become hard to find and prices for common ammo skyrocket.

Industry experts are divided on whether this shortage is part of the typical supply-demand cycle or a more deliberate strain caused by global instability. Regardless, many, like Peter Foss of Shell Shock Technologies, advise consumers to prepare now. The current stock of ammunition won’t last forever, and prices are expected to rise as supply chains continue to tighten.

What Can Consumers Do?

With the 2024 election just around the corner and rumors of new gun control measures on the horizon if Democrats pull off another election steal, now is the time for consumers to take action. Stocking up on ammunition while prices remain relatively low is a prudent strategy. As the gunpowder shortage worsens, both availability and affordability will become major concerns.

While U.S. ammunition manufacturers work to diversify their supply chains and secure alternative sources, the current situation suggests that a significant disruption is imminent. Civilian shooters should heed the warnings of experts like John Farnam and prepare for the possibility of long-term shortages and rising prices.

The storm is coming—are you ready?